One may need to look elsewhere for the sun

cc by sierraromeo (sarah-ji) on Flickr

A chunk of certified PBET instructors are no longer at Asyst Technologies; the company declared bankruptcy in April. On June 10 it was Aviza Technology, also based in hard-hit California, that declared bankruptcy.

In May, Axcelis Technologies, a company at which I used to work, sidelined about 235 workers, or about 20 percent of its global workforce. The company said the decision, which came after a series of other cost-cutting moves, would save it $25 million in the coming year. “This is a difficult but necessary decision due to the continued weakness in the semiconductor industry,” said Axcelis CEO Mary Puma in a statement. That’s now over 12,000 lost jobs in the Boston area technology sector since last summer.

ASM International announced, for the second time in six months, that it would speed up restructuring. This restructuring includes an overall reduction in force together with the move of manufacturing to Singapore.

In late June, a Gartner analyst indicated that sales of stepper units in 2009 would drop by 54% to 118 units for 2009. Compare that with 604 units in 2007. I know of a few people in at least one stepper company no longer employed. I have conducted PBET Workshops for all of the stepper companies. I have many friends throughout this industry and they are frequently on my mind.

So the recession rains continue to fall on all of us. We keep hearing that the sun will be out soon. For example, in June, SEMI provided a forecast that fab spending would double in 2010. They said that “19 fab facilities closed in 2008, and about 35 facilities will close in 2009, though the number of closures should decline in 2010 as only 14 facilities are expected to close. Nine fabs are expected to launch operations in 2009. Overall the trend of new facilities commencing operations has slowed since 1995, due to the fact that most new fabs are 300mm Megafabs for memory production, meaning fewer but larger fabs are needed. Worldwide installed capacity for 2009 is expected to decline by about three percent, mainly due to fab closures, however data from the World Fab Forecast show that installed capacity for 2010 could increase by about six percent.”

Despite this forecast and others, I remain worried that the many closed fabs will provide a glut of used equipment, depressing the market for new equipment purchases. Of course those companies that have tools providing technologies for advanced processes will be ahead of the game, but the abundance of used equipment makes me less convinced about the future. Companies in the used equipment market may have a number of opportunities.

Starting Your Own Business - An Alternative

As for me, PBET Workshop enrollments are down to a trickle. I don’t expect the industry on the whole to be hiring a slew of new technical trainers in the near future! Providing PBET consulting has been rewarding and fun, but there are other work from home solutions for people with a training background.

I have been working on some of my other home business activities. I have begun to actively provide training/mentoring to others who are looking at the idea of a home business. I brought together a lot of home business resource information into a web site I call RG Consulting Partners. Whether you are a boomer, or younger, you are invited to check my resources for starting and growing your own business.

How about you? Have you had to step out of high tech training for a while? What are you doing now to deal with the recession? Are you starting your own business to recession-proof yourself? Please tell us in the comments below!

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